An evolutionary perspective on psychological biases tells a very different story about decision making.If we have learned anything from recent years in the behavioral sciences, it is that humans have numerous but systematic psychological biases that steer our judgment and decision-making away from what one might expect if we were even-handed in weighing up costs, benefits and probabilities.
How can one make better inferences with less knowledge?We have shown that heuristics are often more accurate and faster in uncertain worlds than optimization methods such as multiple regression and non-linear algorithms such as neural networks. The reason is that simple models tend to be more robust than complex models with many free parameters, and are less hurt by overfitting.